Allied and Axis GDP
Ralph Zuljan

A well established predictor of military victory in great power warfare is GDP (Gross Domestic Product). When someone suggests that the Axis could not hop　e to defeat the Allies, the underlying assumption is that the relative material potential of the sides made an Axis victory impossible. Scholars readily accept and promulgate a caution against economic determinism, yet some still tend to accept it in practice. Consider, for example, the comments of Mark Harrison who asserts that "the Allies translated their economic superiority into overwhelming advantage on the battlefield."

On the surface, a look at the numbers Harrison provides confirm the belief that the Axis did not stand a chance of winning the Second World War. Consider the ratio of Allied to Axis GDP presented in the following table:

*Based on Table 1 found in Mark Harrison, The USSR and Total War: Why Didn\'t the Soviet Economy Collapse in 1942? from Mark Harrison, "The Economics of World War II: an Overview," in Mark Harrison, ed., <I>The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison</I>, Cambridge University Press (1998), 10.


Harrison arrives at the annual ratios with the following equations. In 1938-9, the Allied GDP consists of USA + UK + France + USSR; Axis GDP consists of Germany + Austria + Italy + Japan. In 1940, half of the French GDP is allotted to the Allies and half is given to the Axis. In 1941-3, Allied GDP consists of USA + UK + USSR; Axis GDP consists of Germany + France + Austria + Italy + Japan. For 1944, Italian GDP is allotted to the Allies. In 1945, the GDP of Italy and France are added to the Allied total.

The GDP story of World War II is richer than such analysis suggests. GDP is a rough measure of economic power and decision makers probably make their determinations based on the results of the previous year. From this assumption the following statements may be derived from the estimates of GDP during the war years.

걍 퍼왓봣심.