Sinking South Korea - how critical is the situation?

Marine City, a residential community of skyscrapers in Busan's coastal district of Haeundae, towers close to South Korea's southeastern shoreline. The architectural grandeur has been consistently laid bare to destructive threats from angry seas with typhoon-driven waves crashing over seawalls, flooding, broken windows and fallen trees. Typhoon Maysak last September, Chaba in 2016, and 2012's Bolaven and Sanba proved their forces.

Weather events triggering such large-scale damage grew more frequent over the past decade. And it was not the typhoons alone that are believed to be the main culprits ― experts point to rising sea levels as another key element. The aggravated situation was evident not just on the shores of Busan but also the country's other coastal regions ― most noticeably Jeju Island.

A travel guide from the Yongmeori Coast in Seogwipo on the popular tourist island destination told TV network KNN from Busan-South Gyeongsang Province last August that, from 2016, each year had up to 302 days when a tourist site featuring seaside rocks was forced to close because of high sea levels. She said, "If the site's sea level rises by over 50 centimeters by 2050, the sightseeing trail there will go underwater for good."

The island is witnessing other ecological exacerbations as well due to rising sea levels and other climate change impacts.

According to the Jeju Special Self-Governing Provincial Government, the world's largest forest of Abies koreana (also known as Korean fir) ― designated "endangered" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List ― on Mount Halla is losing its trees rapidly. The forest was reduced from 738.3 hectares in 2006 to 626 in 2015.

Under the island's waters, shrinking biological diversity has reduced gulfweed and sea trumpet in number, while expanding stony coral.

"We are losing indigenous species that are being replaced by foreign species adapted to tropical climates," Yoon Seong-eun from the Environmental Policy Division under the government's Environmental Preservation Bureau told The Korea Times. "For the island's tourism industry that uses its own natural assets, that is bad news."

Sea level is an important yardstick in assessing how far the climate change crisis has progressed worldwide. Because there is no way to turn back the clock on the situation, humans can only slow the disaster's acceleration ― a disaster which is happening on a global scale in the forms of thermal expansion of seawater and melting of ice sheets and glaciers.

The situation has been monitored in South Korea during the past 30 years. Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) said in December 2019 that the country's sea level rose 2.97 millimeters each year during the period, but in the past decade, the acceleration grew much more quickly on the southern and eastern coasts. Jeju had the steepest rise with 4.26 millimeters per year, while eastern, western and southern waters followed with 3.50, 2.48 and 2.44, respectively.

"Based on past data, we calculated that the South Korean sea, compared to this year, will rise by 2.97 centimeters by 2030," Lee Eun-il from KHOA told The Korea Times.

"And from 2030, most of the future scenarios suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show the rise will accelerate at a faster pace than now. IPCC's 2019 report said that according to the worst case scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 ― in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century ― the global sea level will rise by 1.1 meters by 2100."

In August, Greenpeace rolled out a grimmer lookout for the country. Using CoastalDEM ― a coastal digital elevation model by American non-profit organization Climate Central ― which simulated how sea level rise will actually look like under the IPCC's RCP8.5 scenario, the organization said that in 2030, more than three million South Koreans would suffer from nationwide flooding. The model, for precision, used 23 "input layers" like estimated slope, population density, NASA's Ice-Cloud-and-Land-Elevation Satellite, tree canopy height and vegetation density.

Justin Jeong from the organization's Seoul office, who recently campaigned raising awareness on sea level rising in South Korea, said more than five percent of the country's land ― about 5,880 square kilometers ― would be submerged, affecting about 3.32 million people concentrated in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province and Incheon.

"The damage will include Incheon International Airport's brand new second terminal worth 4 trillion won ($3.45 billion) as well as Gimpo airport, wharves, power plants, steel mills and other state infrastructures," Jeong said.

"Flooding will be greater on the western coast because of its lower altitude than eastern and southern coasts. The sizes of tsunamis caused by typhoons will also be stronger on the western and southern coasts than on the east coast.

"Our simulation was based on the guess that global sea level will rise by one meter within this century. But other reports showed if Antarctica melts faster than we fear, the rise could reach two meters."

Wang Jiao, a geographic information system expert from Greenpeace East Asia's research unit who directed the CoastalDEM simulation, said about one billion of the global population are living in low-lying coastal regions.

"There were typhoon-bound tsunamis at certain locations that were developed by tropical low pressure mixed with sea level rise every 100 years," Wang, based in Hong Kong, told The Korea Times. "But following 2050, that will likely happen every year."

Although no natural disaster can be contained by human efforts ― even more so with those on a cataclysmic scale like rising sea levels ― Busan refuses to remain idle.

The city's 2030 general urban planning includes limiting buildings or facilities in locations vulnerable to natural disasters. Apart from this, the detailed second-phase counter-climate change planning for 2017-21 is being carried out, with the next phase for 2022-26 being planned.

Seo Gil-jong from the Environment Policy Office's Climate and Air Quality Division under the city government said the city was analyzing flood-danger zones and preparing counter-measures to be effective after November.

"We are putting the city's danger zones on maps to better anticipate flooding and other natural disasters," Seo told The Korea Times. "In 2022, a command center managing the city flooding and more reservoirs for rain will be introduced. A coastal disaster prevention forest will also be planted near Myeongji Noksan National Industrial Complex flanking the city's coast in the Gangseo District."

The Jeju government has reserved 90 billion won to counter climate change, including boosting defenses for regions prone to natural disasters. Developing technologies to strengthen crops against frequent flooding, extreme heat and cold, and drought has been allocated 800 million won under five projects.

"Jeju is now working on a total of 38 projects under seven categories adapting to climate change, like water management and natural disasters," Yoon said. "And yes, we are working on Korean firs as well, developing regenerated species to revive the forest."

In June, KHOA discovered a clue that could lead to more precise forecasting of sea level rise ― atmospheric pressure. According to the finding, sea level rises fluctuate throughout the year just like temperature, but within such changes, atmospheric pressure causes a certain pattern.

The discovery used satellite data on sea levels from 1993 to 2018 and 21 tidal forecasting data sources from South Korea, China and Japan.

According to the discovery, a steep differential between high-and-low pressures during summer draws a strong southeasterly wind to South Korea, bringing a sweeping tide. It increased sea levels surrounding the peninsula as much as five centimeters higher than the annual average, which was confirmed in 1994, 2004 and 2012.

In contrast, in years with a low pressure differential and weak southeasterly wind, the same figures were lower than the annual average by as much as five centimeters, as in 1993 and 1995. The discovery concluded that varying atmospheric pressure can mean varying sea levels from five to more than 10 centimeters.

"If we take into account the changing atmospheric pressures around the country in addition to other impacts of global warming, we can predict sea level rise's consequences more precisely and contribute to the governments' planning of development of coastal regions," Lee said.

The oceanic threat to South Korea is also threatening Hong Kong, according to an official release from the Hong Kong government shared by Wang. The intelligence contained how the government plans to counter rising sea levels.

According to the letter issued by Hong Kong Secretary for Development Michael Wong in the Legislative Council on Dec. 18, 2019, the government began developing a common spatial data infrastructure (CSDI) and three-dimensional digital map due for completion in 2022 and 2023, respectively. These smart city applications, which process flooding, rainfall intensity and tidal data, can help the government evaluate the effects of flooding and formulate contingency measures.

The government's drainage services department adopted "state-of-the-art" numerical hydraulic models to improve the city's stormwater draining capacity. The department also uses real-time monitoring of major rivers, channels and hydraulic structures using telemetry and video, and an early alert system at storm surge spots and overtopping wave spots.

Hong Kong's low-lying coastal and windy locations, including areas of Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and the New Territories, are under the effect of "extreme weather," according to the letter.

"The problem at the root of sea levels rising is carbon emission, which must be reduced," Jeong said. "The U.N. strongly advises South Korea to reduce its carbon emission by 7.6 percent a year, by half in 10 years, and to reach net zero emissions by 2050. But our country's effort is not enough. We produce the seventh most carbon emissions in the world, while our renewable energy-based power generation is far behind most OECD countries."

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