The IRGC and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah have reduced the presence of their senior officers in Syria while midranking officers are shifting from their original locations in the country, Syrian security officials said.

The Biden administration is encouraging Israel not to retaliate and to instead be satisfied that a U.S.-brokered alliance including Israel and Arab nations successfully repelled Iran’s Saturday assault, which included more than 300 attack drones and cruise and ballistic missiles. British and German foreign ministers were in Israel Wednesday to reinforce that message of de-escalation. 

Israel has said it intends to respond, but officials are still undecided on the nature of the retaliation. 

The shape of its response has the potential to expand Israel’s conflict in Gaza with Tehran-backed Palestinian group Hamas into a wider regional war, an outcome most sides appear eager to avoid, though fears are growing that Israel and Iran could misinterpret each other’s intentions. 

To encourage Israel to limit its response, the White House said Tuesday it would impose a series of economic sanctions on Iran, including on the IRGC and its missile and drone programs. Other sanctions could target its oil industry and its ability to raise government revenues. 

In a sign Israel is considering the U.S. and its allies’ message, Israeli officials assured Gulf states and other Arab countries on Monday that its response to Iran’s attack wouldn’t endanger their security and would likely be limited in scope, The Wall Street Journal reported. Israel is likely to warn its Arab allies before it retaliates and could limit its attacks to Iran-linked facilities in Syria, according to regional Arab officials.

Already, Iran’s IRGC has enacted emergency measures for its facilities across Syria. Some IRGC members have evacuated their bases in Syria and others are doing so at night when Israeli strikes are most likely. Only a few soldiers are staying behind to defend arsenals. 

Iran-linked facilities in Syria are viewed by military experts as an option that would allow Israel to respond but avoid a spiral of tit-for-tat exchanges that lead to a broader conflagration. 

Tehran, at the same time, has said it would respond to any Israeli action, signaling that it no longer wants to continue its decadeslong shadow war with Israel—fought largely with its proxies—and will now engage directly. 

“The smallest action against Iran’s interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response against all its perpetrators,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said.

Israel already engages in almost daily exchanges of fire with Iran’s most potent proxy, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. The Israeli military said Tuesday that it had launched airstrikes and killed two senior Hezbollah commanders and a lower-ranking operative who were involved in launching rocket and antitank missile attacks toward Israeli territory. Hezbollah confirmed all three deaths. 

The recent exchanges with Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border are considered within the rules of engagement that the two sides unofficially set out at the start of the Gaza war, when Hezbollah began firing on Israeli territory but refrained from sparking a bigger war. 

Hezbollah was on higher alert during the Iranian attack over the weekend, anticipating a simultaneous Israeli retaliation that could target Hezbollah positions, according to a person familiar with Hezbollah’s operations. But the group has now lowered its threat level, as Hezbollah estimates Israel won’t hit it in Lebanon in response to Iran’s attack, the person said.

p.s-

이스라엘은 보복하기 전에 아랍 동맹국들에게 경고할 가능성이 높으며 시리아에 있는 이란과 연계된 시설에 대한 공격을 제한할 수 있다고 지역 아랍 관리들은 밝혔다.

이미 이란의 IRGC는 시리아 전역의 시설에 대한 긴급 조치를 시행했다. 일부 IRGC 대원들은 시리아에 있는 그들의 기지에서 철수했고, 다른 대원들은 이스라엘의 공격이 가장 가능성이 높은 밤에 철수하고 있다. 소수의 병사들만이 무기고를 지키기 위해 뒤에 남아 있습니다.

군사 전문가들은 시리아에 있는 이란과 연계된 시설들을 이스라엘이 대응할 수 있게 해주면서도 더 큰 대화재로 이어지는 팃포탯(tit-for-tat) 교환의 소용돌이를 피할 수 있는 옵션으로 보고 있다.

이게 핵심인 것 같은데?